SO it's important to make your OWN mind up on AV and DON'T let others, (who have a vested interest) do it for you and if NO to AV wins on May 5th we know EXACTLY who to blame for it don't we. Hope that Lib Dem MPs resign from Coalition and stand as independents leaving David Cameron to his "strong" and "decisive" MINORITY Government!
Friday May 6th 2011 10pm the Lib Dems have all but been completely wiped out in the local council elections and the results of the AV referendum are just in Cue David Dimbleby BBC1 election night special.
"Well ladies and gentleman as predicted earlier the YES to AV have been pipped at the post by NO to AV in the only national referendum on electoral reform the UK is ever likely to see. I can confirm NO to AV have won by the tiniest of margins with turnout at a low 35% with just over a hundred votes in it there will be NO change to our electoral system in 2015. First- Past-The-Post wins. Jubilent scenes there at the NO to AV campaign HQ. Now we take you live to Number 10 Downing Street where David Cameron is due to make an anouncement."
David Cameron: "I would like to thank the British people for endorsing First-Past-The-Post a system that has stood the test of time and served this country very well previously and thanks to you the British public will do so long into our future".
Sunday May 8th BBC1 Andrew Marr show:
Andrew Marr to Ed Miliband: "so what went wrong for the YES to AV do you think Ed?"
Ed Miliband to Andrew Marr: " Well I think we can see from the very low turnout that the voting public were confused by the issues at stake mainly because of the wall of disinformation put out by the Tory NO to AV campaign. That's why I'm saying that we in the Labour Party must still support Fairer Votes and we'd like to work with the Lib Dems in achieving this in the future"
Andrew Marr to Ed Miliband: " So are you saying that you will put AV onto the Labour Manifesto?"
Ed Miliband to Andrew Marr: "That's what I would like to happen yes. Obviously I need to talk to my Party first but I am hopeful that as a party we can embrace AV - I believe it's Fairer than First-Past-The-Post and will help the Progressive Majority in defeating the Tories."
Monday May 9th 1am:
Nick Clegg on phone to David Cameron:
"Hi David, sorry to trouble you this late but I've been having hours of phone calls all day - it's no good I can't contain this one xxxx and xxxx are going over to Ed. We need an urgent meeting first thing tomorrow 6 am"
What follows is the rapid unravelling of the coalition. Lib Dem MP after Lib Dem MP sensing defeat in the 2015 General Election cross the floor to join Labour. Lib Dem MPs that stay in government are in rebellious mood - angry at AV defeat and are openly hostile to David Cameron. Coalition Government looks not only weakened but it appears that David Cameron has lost control of his own ministers.
June 2011: Vince Cable resigns from Government stating "irreconcilable differences" between himself and Government Policy - in an interview with the Guardian he states "David Cameron is intent on delivering tax cuts to the wealthy at the expense of the poor"
July 2011: Sensing defeat TUC organise a week of National Strikes to bring down the Government
August 2011: Latest growth figures show UKs GDP is back into reverse and unemployment jumps to 2.75 million
September 2011: Ed Miliband at PMQs "This government lost the respect of the British people long ago when will the Prime Minister just admit defeat and call for another election?"
October 2011 the Government having lost a crucial vote in the the House of Commons - David Cameron announces an immediate General Election.
December 2011: Charlotte Vere and Baroness Warsi are watching TV together - Ed Miliband is outside No. 10: "I would like to thank the British people for placing their confidence in me. I promise the next General Election shall be fought under the fairer Alternative Vote"
There's a ring at the doorbell. It's Interflora with the biggest bouquet of flowers they've ever seen! Placing them down on the hallway table they pick up the attached card and read:
"Dear Charlotte & Sayeeda - Thank you for all your help. I couldn't have done it without you. E.M."
And anyone in any doubt I thought a good guide in life is well what would Winston Churchill have said?
Well we know what he said because he said this about AV...
... “it’s the most worthless votes go to the most worthless candidates.”
Thank you Winston; I couldn’t have put it better myself.
And since then I've heard this quote being repeated by various members of the NO to AV press gangers - the implication of course is that if our national hero Winston Churchill was No to AV then we must be also but Churchill also said this earlier in his long career as a politician:
"The women's suffrage movement is only the small edge of the wedge, if we allow women to vote it will mean the loss of social structure and the rise of every liberal cause under the sun.Women are well represented by their fathers, brothers, and husbands."
As this quote clearly shows is that at the time Churchill was set against Votes for Women - which at the time was the consensus view with Suffragettes being branded as extremists - a view that seems completely alien to us now. I've no doubt the same view will be taken of the Alternative Vote in the future. Fortunately eventually after a long and bitter struggle women eventually got the vote in 1918 (or at least some of them over 30 did*) - It wasn't until 1928 that all women over 21 got the vote. (*Incidentally it would be interesting to know if there were any calls from women at the time [in 1918] to reject votes for women because it only applied to women over 30 and we want universal suffrage)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women's_suffrage_in_the_United_Kingdom
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representation_of_the_People_Act_1918
It's hard to imagine it now but Churchill was bitterly opposed to giving women the vote, (the consensus view at the time). Perhaps then the lesson to be learned is that when it comes to the Alternative Vote referendum it's important that we make our own mind up and not let historical figures do it for us - even if they are a National Hero and that at the time of any electoral reform there will be and always have been lots of dissenting voices from establishment figures.
Statue of Emmeline Pankhurst, Victoria Tower Gardens, Westminster http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women's_suffrage_in_the_United_Kingdom
On at least three occasions I've seen David Cameron use a race analogy in his desperate attempt to discredit the Alternative Vote. On Friday 1st of April in Wales he said this:
"and it's a system that's so unfair that a candidate which came second or third can end up winning. Just think forward to the Olympics; Usain Bolt powers home in the hundred metres when it comes to handing out the Gold Medal they give it to the person who comes third. You wouldn't do it in the Olympics, we shouldn't do it in politics we've got to vote no this crazy system."
Well David Cameron is wrong to compare electing an Member of Parliament with a race because firstly with First-Past-The-Post there is no post or finish line. An MP can be elected with as little as 29% of the vote so if I were to use David Cameron's race analogy I would say:
"Just think forward to the Olympics; Usain Bolt powers along to 29 metres and then everyone just stops running and they give him the Gold Medal even though no one finished the race or crossed the line... in fact there IS no finish line. You wouldn't do it in the Olympics, we shouldn't do it in politics we've got to vote no this crazy system... vote YES to AV on May 5th"
Secondly neither system can be compared with a race because electing an MP is about constituents choosing a person to best represent them in Parliament and not a popularity contest, (or a race) - because AV enables at least half the voters to choose their MP it is more democratic than First-Past-The-Post - which more often than not results in less than half the voters electing their MP. But if David Cameron insists on using his NO to AV race analogy I would answer him by saying; at least the Alternative Vote has a finish line to cross, (50% of the vote) which is more than than can be said of First-Past-The-Post!
I'm voting YES to AV because I know that the Alternative Vote as a stand alone electoral reform is Fairer than First Past The Post, (more of that later) but I make no secret of the fact that I would rather the Referendum was on a proportional voting system. But one thing I am completely sure of is that a NO to AV result will kill any possible chance of future voting reforms stone dead.
If NO to AV wins then David Cameron and the Tories will take this result as a resounding endorsement of First-Past-The-Post which favours both the Tory and Labour Party by channelling the votes of smaller parties, (this is why both parties have been in power since 1922).
Also history informs us that when it comes to how we elect our MPs Labour talks the talk but they don't walk the walk. In 1997 under Tony Blair's leadership Labour's manifesto promised:
"We are committed to a referendum on the voting system for the House of Commons. An independent commission on voting systems will be appointed early to recommend a proportional alternative to the first-past-the-post system."
After 8 years in power Labour had failed to deliver the promised referendum on electoral reform and in the 2005 General Election Labour went on to win a majority government with just 35% of the national vote. It wasn't until the poll ratings suggested that Labour were set to lose the 2010 general election that Labour now under Gordon Brown's leadership added to their manifesto:
"To ensure that every MP is supported by the majority of their constituents voting at each election, we will hold a referendum on introducing the Alternative Vote for elections to the House of Commons."
Most people, (myself included) saw this for what it was a last ditch attempt by Labour to steal some Lib Dem votes and jump on the Clegg-mania band wagon which had gripped the nation at the time. Do you remember Gordon Brown repeating "I agree with Nick" on the pre-election TV debates?
Now fast forward to the 2015 General Election after a NO to AV win in May. The election is to be fought using First-Past-The-Post and the Lib Dem vote has collapsed. Who wins? who knows but it can only be one of two possible winners Labour or Tory but one thing is certain the real losers will be the voters yet again who won't have got what they voted for and any hope of future voting reform will dead and buried for a generation at the very least. You see even if there was to be another hung parliament what chance is there of being another referendum on voting reform after a NO to AV result? None. Why because the politicians are only interested in what works best for them and not for us and they're never going to give you on PR after a NO to AV vote.
First-Past-The-Post ensures that Labour and Tory in power all of the time - that's why Labour didn't deliver on voting reform they felt they didn't need to and in 2005 they didn't and by 2010 it was just too late.
The Electoral Reform Society has been lobbying for change for decades but how can you ever get it when the people who hold all the power don't want it and are actively blocking it?
AV will lead to further voting reforms in the future I'm sure of it, (more of that later) but for now we HAVE to vote YES to AV or else any chance of voting reform in the future is dead and buried. As I said earlier I am convinced that when compared with Tin - Brass is better - it may not be Gold I grant you but history tells us that you cannot get Gold from Tin not when the people in power own all the shares in Tin.
Vote YES to AV on May 5th and the door to further electoral reform is ajar, (all be it on a chain) but if NO to AV wins the door is not only closed it's locked, bolted and the key thrown away. Replace the word "Parrot" for "Electoral Reform Society" into Monty Python's Dead parrot sketch with YOU the voter as the customer and Electoral Reform Society as the Shop Keeper and you've got the idea. ER won't just be be stunned it will be dead - stone dead
'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e
rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the
bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!! THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!
Every vote will count on May 5th so don't abstain, (as there are a lot of vested interest groups who will be getting the NO vote out in their droves) - YOUR YES vote counts. Vote YES to AV - YES to CHANGE! or we will all be stuck with First-Past-The-Post for forever and a day and electoral reform is as dead as a parrot!
On Friday 18th February David Cameron made his first No to AV speech in which he said of the Alternative Vote:
"It could mean a Parliament of second choices".
Now look at how David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative Party in 2005 and the first thing you notice is that The Conservatives didn't use First-Past-The-Post for their elections instead they use a process of elimination rounds - (a system remarkable in it's resemblance to AV) The first two rounds were for MPs to vote on and the final round was a postal ballot of Tory Party membership. In the first ballot of MPs David Davis won winning 6 votes more than Cameron. So given Cameron's "Parliament of second choices" quote doesn't that mean that at least amongst his own MPs David Cameron was their second choice and their first choice was David Davis.
"Supporters of unpopular parties end up having their votes counted a number of times...
...potentially deciding the outcome of an election...
...while people who back more popular parties only get one vote."
So following this logic was it fair then that supporters of Kenneth Clarke (who won the fewest votes and was therefore eliminated after the first round) were able to vote again in the second round?
Also why did the Conservatives feel the need to conduct their election over three elimination rounds of voting when they could have have just had one First-Past-The-Post ballot of membership with all four names on the ballot paper? Perhaps they wanted to ensure that the elected winner had the backing of the majority of voters and not just the largest minority.
So why is David Cameron No to AV and why doesn't the Tory Party use First-Past-The-Post for their elections? is it just a case of what is good enough for US to use is not good enough for THEM to use
Or perhaps David Cameron believes that under First-Past-The-Post the Tories will stand a much better chance of winning a majority in 2015 - after all thanks to First-Past-The-Post there were only 16,000 votes in it last time - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7120733.ece
Chilling!
Yet another good reason for us all to vote YES to Fairer Votes on Thursday May 5th
